文章ID：6070

我和僵尸有个约会2

贝森特出手强压美债利率城堡证券警告：搞“金融抑制”恐伤美元_我的网站

百度网盘

A | 　　对于美国财政部试图强行压制长端美债利率的动向，华尔街提出了另一层担忧：把美债问题压下去的同时，美元会不会被动承压。 Police say there were around 100 people in the trailer, found in the late afternoon on Monday. The individuals have been described as migrants. One local reporter called it a possible human smuggling case.,Multiple SAPD sources tell me it’s at least 40 people dead. Sixteen others were taken to area hospitals in varying conditions. Death toll could rise. https://t.co/zdb5KC6Q4M— Dillon Collier (@dilloncollier) June 28, 2022,Border patrol officers were spotted arriving at the scene around 8 p.m. First responders were already attending to the victims and were spotted using thermal imaging along footpaths in the woods and along a nearby railroad track, apparently searching for individuals who may have left the truck.,Monday was a particularly hot day in San Antonio, with temperatures reaching 101 F around 3pm, according to Weather Underground. The truck was found in a secluded area of San Antonio. It was initially reported that 25 individuals in the trailer were dead, but that number has quickly risen. It is expected that the number will continue to rise, with some suggesting it could exceed 50. An investigation is underway.,The truck was discovered sometime before 7 p.m. (CDT).,About 20 Migrants Died While Trying to Enter Spanish City of Melilla - Source25 June, 02:35 GMT,Texas Governor Greg Abbott blamed President Biden for the deaths. “These deaths are on Biden.” The Republican Governor wrote on Twitter “They are a result of his deadly open border policies.”,At Least 42 People Found Dead Inside Truck Carrying Migrants In Texas. These deaths are on Biden.They are a result of his deadly open border policies.They show the deadly consequences of his refusal to enforce the law. https://t.co/8KG3iAwlEk— Greg Abbott (@GregAbbott_TX) June 28, 2022,As Twitter user Texas Blueblone pointed out, if the United States actually had an open-border policy, there would be no need for migrants to sneak through in a truck during the heat of summer.,1) Politicizing death is horrible, but seems like it’s kind of your thing now, huh? 2) If the border was actually open, why would they need to hide in the truck?— Texas Blueblonde (@txblueblonde) June 28, 2022。　　作为最新的案例，城堡证券在最新报告中指出，美国财政部试图通过国债回购来压低长期融资成本的做法，本质上属于一种“金融抑制”（financial repression），可能削弱美元，并加剧通胀压力。　　在长期美债收益率升至多年高位后，美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特上周扩大了国债回购计划。周一的最新消息显示，除了增发短期国债外，贝森特可能动用财政部一般账户（即财政部存放在美联储的现金余额）为这些回购操作提供资金。　　城堡证券认为，这种干预可能会把市场对于财政前景和通胀的担忧，从美债市场转移到外汇市场。因为较低的美债收益率会削弱美元资产的吸引力，从而可能导致美元走弱，并进一步推高进口商品价格。

B | 　　“更广泛地说，这实际上已经在边际上构成了‘金融抑制’，”城堡证券欧洲、中东和非洲固定收益销售主管诺沙德·沙阿（Nohshad Shah）在报告中写道。“阻止美国国债以更低价格完成市场出清，并不会消除这种压力，只不过是把压力转移到了其他地方。”　　沙阿进一步表示，压低长期收益率并不能消除推动利率上升的根本经济力量。在就业接近充分、人工智能领域投资规模庞大的背景下，宽松的财政和货币政策仍在刺激经济。美元走弱将进一步放松金融条件，并可能通过刺激需求、推高进口商品价格等渠道增加通胀压力。

C | 　　所以兜兜转转，一切又回到了问题的原点：美联储和美国财政部都需要做好自己的份内事。　　沙阿写道：“债券市场释放的信息非常直接：财政政策或货币政策应该收紧。真正具有持久效果的解决方案，不是反复干预市场，而是在财政政策上作出更艰难的选择，同时央行也需要主动走在通胀前面——如果有必要，甚至应该通过加息来做到这一点。

D | ”　　与城堡证券类似，多家知名机构也对美元的前景感到担忧。华尔街还将其称为“货币贬值交易”（debasement trade），这个术语指的是投资者会抛售容易受到冲击的货币或证券，转而投资黄金等“避险”资产。　　其中，德意志银行的全球外汇研究主管George Saravelos指出，如果美国国债的市场价格“不被‘允许’下跌”，那么外国投资者所持美国国债的外汇价格就必须通过美元走弱来进行调整。　　布鲁金斯学会高级研究员Robin Brooks更是直言美国财政部在“玩火”。